North Carolina Early Voting Appears to Favor Democrats

News, analysis

The early (absentee and "one-stop") North Carolina vote is running quite heavily Democratic in voter registration, fairly heavily female, and more heavily African American than most polls had factored, records through October 30 show.

As of October 30, over 2,078,000 voters had cast early ballots in North Carolina, 91.8% of which were cast at "one-stop" polling centers. 52.6% of those voters were registered Democrats. (Last year, 48.6% of voters in N.C. were Democrats.)

56.5% of early voters in North Carolina are female; 26.6% of all early voters are Black. (Most polls in North Carolina have adjusted their sampling assuming that 19 to 21% of the voters turning out would be black.) Of course, it is unknown what the turnout figures of the various demographics will be on election day.

Black voters are also reportedly voting Democratic in substantially greater proportion than they did in 2004, at least one respected polling organization, PPP said this Wednesday, October 29:

The 2004 exit poll showed John Kerry winning black voters in the state 85-15. A private poll we conducted statewide over the last few days showed Barack Obama winning them 95-5. That may not sound like a huge difference, but look at it this way. Kerry won them by 70. Obama's winning them by 90. Let's conservatively put black turnout at 20%. A 20% improvement with 20% of the population is worth an extra four points for Obama statewide.

Most recent polls of the presidential race in North Carolina have the candidates within two or three points of each other. An increased African American turnout of the order suggested above, coupled with the increased Democratic voting of the African American electorate would translate into an additional five percent of the vote for the Democrats (rather than the four percent suggested by PPP, based on a 20% Black turnout), pushing North Carolina into a "lean Democratic" state heading into November 4.

Expect Barack Obama (and Kay Hagan, the Democratic senate candidate against Liddy Dole) to open in North Carolina with a significant lead, which will likely close as the night wears on. If it doesn't close quickly, the race is over.


Related posts:

Huge African American Turnout in Georgia - Might An Upset Be In the Cards?;

Republicans Looking for People Willing To Sue in Nevada As Democratic Voters Surge;

Stevens Falls Behind in Alaska Senate Race - Rassmussen Poll - October 29, 2008


(h/t: United States Election Project.)

(Map courtesyNational Atlas.gov)