Huge African American Turnout in Georgia - Might An Upset Be In the Cards?

Georgia, the ninth most populous state in the union, is demonstrating, along with several other states (notably North Carolina, Louisiana and parts of Ohio) , an unusual mix of early voters for the 2008 general election.

Of particular note is the large turnout of African American voters. While 28.7% of the population of Georgia is black, black turnout through Thursday, October 30 reportedly constituted 35.1% of all voters to date. Over 56% of early voters are women. Over 2,000,000 people have early-voted in Georgia; in 2004, somewhat over 3,500,000 voted in total - both early and on election day.

There are at least two significant races in Georgia which may be impacted by this surge of African American voters. Barack Obama, who hasn't led in any significant poll in Georgia this year, and trails by 4 to 6 points in most polls, could do substantially better than suggested by polls which presume a 22 to 28% black turnout. However, Obama has reportedly failed to spend on television advertising in the Atlanta Metro market, home to over half the population of the state.

One writer at a Republican election site quotes the CEO of the Georgia-based polling firm Insider Advantage as saying:

“Obama is doing better among white voters than Kerry did in 2004 (according to exit polls of that race), carrying some 28 percent of the white vote. He’s carrying around 75 percent both of the Hispanic and ‘other’ vote, which makes up between four and five percent of Georgia’s electorate. He is winning among independents, outside of the margin of error of the poll.

“While this is a tight race, the problem for McCain is that all but 3 percent of whites have made their decision and approximately 8 percent of black voters have continued to say they are undecided or voting ‘other.’ This will likely move closer to 95 percent for Obama when all said and done. Obama has room to go up.

“If the race were to remain the way it is today, you won’t see these numbers come to fruition until very late in the night of Nov. 4 or perhaps the next day. The early numbers will likely show McCain ahead, as the counties where Obama is doing best are some of the largest counties and will be the slowest to report.”

However, Towery also writes in a post dated October 28 that Obama, by pulling resources from Georgia, has harmed his very real chances to win the state, and harmed the chances of the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senator from Georgia, Jim Martin:

While both Martin and Chambliss are up in the latest poll, Towery said Martin's gains in past polls showed he was gaining momentum. That appears to have faltered with Obama's redeployment of resources to other states, he said. “Ironically, Obama had a better shot of winning Georgia than North Carolina or Florida but he’s letting it slip away.”

The number of black voters ought to help Jim Martin in his senate race against incumbent senator Saxby Chambliss. Polls in that race have shown a close race without factoring in the larger-than-calculated African American turnout.

Martin is trailing by only 2% in the latest Rassmussen poll in Georgia, which also shows a high (12%) group of undecided voters in the Senate race. SurveyUSA, is showing an undecided rate of 7% among black voters, with only 3% of whites reportedly undecided. Presuming the black undecideds break heavily for Martin, the senate race could be the closest U.S. Senate race in the nation. (Keep in mind that under Georgia law, the winner in the senate race must win at least 50% of the vote +1 to avoid a runoff.)

A final factor to watch on election night is the percentage of the vote Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, formerly a Republican congressman from Georgia, pulls from the Republican ticket. In the latest Insider Advantage poll, conducted yesterday, October 30, reportedly the only one to include Barr in their polling, he was pulling 6% of the vote, giving Barack Obama a 1-point advantage over McCain (well within the margin of error.)

When the higher African American turnout is factored in, Obama may be positioned to surprise some folks in Georgia this Tuesday night (or, more likely, Wednesday morning.) As in other states with heavy early voting by Democrats and/or African Americans, watch for early Obama leads to possibly narrow as the votes from a different mix of voters on election day are tabulated and announced.

Regardless, with all these factors at play, were I a betting man, I'd put my long-shot money on Barack Obama to win Georgia's 15 electoral votes, beating McCain by one to two points in the state.

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Update: (10/31/08, 6:40 p.m. PDT) Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has announced a decision to launch television ads in Georgia, citing positive early voter turnout numbers. "We're just going to give it a little go . . . and see how close we can get it," said Plouffe. The campaign also plans television ad purchases in North Dakota and in John McCain's home state of Arizona, where polls have shown a tightening of McCain's lead down to 3 or 4 percentage points.


Related posts:

North Carolina Early Voting Appears to Favor Democrats;

Republicans Looking for People Willing To Sue in Nevada As Democratic Voters Surge;

Stevens Falls Behind in Alaska Senate Race - Rassmussen Poll - October 29, 2008



(Map of Georgia, Fulton County / Atlanta highlighted, courtesy Wikipedia Commons.)